Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/4/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CINDA) 2.A POSITION 2008/12/19 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 64.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/20 06 UTC: 14.5S/62.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/12/20 18 UTC: 15.0S/61.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/12/21 06 UTC: 15.4S/60.6E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/12/21 18 UTC: 15.7S/60.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/12/22 06 UTC: 16.1S/59.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/12/22 18 UTC: 16.6S/59.5E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0 CINDA SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN, WITH A LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH MAINTAINS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STILL EXISTS BUT HAS WEAKENED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED AWAY NORTHWARDS. EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS NOT ESTABLISHED. THE SYSTEM IS NOW STEERED BY A THE LOW LEVELS STEERING FLOWS AND TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC FORECAST AIDS ARE IN A RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL TAU 24/36, BUT DIVERGE BEYOND. SOME OF THEM KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, SOME CURVE SOUTHWARDS, EVEN SOUTHEASTWARDS. RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS.