Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/4/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CINDA) 2.A POSITION 2008/12/20 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2S / 63.1E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/20 12 UTC: 14.9S/61.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/12/21 00 UTC: 15.3S/60.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/12/21 12 UTC: 15.8S/60.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/12/22 00 UTC: 16.2S/59.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/12/22 12 UTC: 16.7S/59.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/12/23 00 UTC: 17.3S/59.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0 CINDA SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN ON THE IR IMAGERY, WITH A LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH MAINTAINS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. ON MICROWAVE DATA AQUA 2055Z, THE LLCC IS VERY WELL DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS SOUTHEASTWARDS AWAY, FAR FROM THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EVOLVES WITHIN A NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STILL EXISTS BUT HAS WEAKENED. LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS ESTABLISHED POLEWARD BUT NOT EQUATORWARD. THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND TAU 24, FIELDS AT 700 HPA BECOME WEAK, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC FORECAST AIDS ARE IN A RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL TAU 24, BUT DIVERGE BEYOND. SOME OF THEM KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, SOME CURVE SOUTHWARDS, EVEN SOUTHEASTWARDS. RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS.