Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/4/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CINDA) 2.A POSITION 2008/12/21 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 62.1E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/21 12 UTC: 16.0S/61.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/12/22 00 UTC: 16.5S/60.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/12/22 12 UTC: 17.0S/60.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/12/23 00 UTC: 17.5S/60.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5- CI=2.0 INTENSITY ANALYSIS: BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14:06Z THAT SUGGEST THAT IT STILL EXIST 30 KT WINDS ONLY VERY LOCALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE. SYSTEM IS SUFFERING FROM STRONG NORTHWESTLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM COMES CLOSER TO "EX-CINDA" AND ALLOW A WEAKENING IN THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A POTENTIAL TEMPORALLY REINTENSIFICATION OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND MAKE ONLY ATEMPORALY STOP OF THE WEAKENING, BECAUSE IT SEEMS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT IT COULD BE A SIGNIFICENT INTENSIFICATION IN SUCH A MARGINAL ENVIRONEMENT (NO MONSOON INFLOW AND DRY ENVIRONEMENT)