Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/4/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CINDA) 2.A POSITION 2008/12/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 60.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/12/21 18 UTC: 15.2S/59.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/12/22 06 UTC: 15.8S/59.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/12/22 18 UTC: 16.2S/59.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/12/23 06 UTC: 16.5S/58.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/12/23 18 UTC: 16.6S/58.7E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/12/24 06 UTC: 16.9S/58.4E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 LAST NIHGT MULTICHANNEL MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY DO NOT ALLOW TO LOCALISE A LOW LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER, NEAR INFRARED AVHRR3 METOP 20/1804Z AND NOAA18 20/2206Z STILL REVEALS A LOW LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED MORE NORTHERN THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYSED. THIS LOCATION IS CONFIMRED BY QUIKSCAT 21/0236Z SWATH. THIS RECURVED WESTWARDS MOTION IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING OVER MADAGASCAR IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND SHOULD CONCERN THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE A NEW RECURVING SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS TEMPORARELY WEAKENED AND HAS ALLOWED WITHIN LAST NIGHT NEW DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE CLOSER TO THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER. PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. A RE-INTENSIFICATION IS AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTED.