Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/5/20082009 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5 2.A POSITION 2009/01/08 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 70.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/08 18 UTC: 15.3S/68.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/01/09 06 UTC: 16.5S/67.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/01/09 18 UTC: 17.1S/66.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/10 06 UTC: 17.7S/65.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/01/10 18 UTC: 18.5S/65.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/01/11 06 UTC: 19.7S/65.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFYED LAST NIGHT, ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW LOW LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS MONIROTED UNTIL YESTERDAY ( ONE NEAR 10s AND THE OTHER NEAR 15S, RESIDUAL OF BILLY). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE LOW LEVELS RIDGE IN THE SOOUTHEAST, THEN UP TO TAU48, SOUTHWRDS AS THE TROUGH ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FED BY A STRONG MOONSON FLOW, AND A FAVORABLE EQUATORWARDS OUTFLOW IS PRESENT.