Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 2.A POSITION 2009/01/08 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0S / 70.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 950 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/09 00 UTC: 14.0S/70.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/01/09 12 UTC: 15.0S/69.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/01/10 00 UTC: 15.6S/67.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/10 12 UTC: 15.9S/67.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/01/11 00 UTC: 16.4S/66.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/01/11 12 UTC: 17.2S/66.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0-. CONVECTION BUILT LAST NIGHT, REMAINS ACTIVE TODAY, FED BY A GOOD MOONSON FLOW AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVELS EQUATORWARDS OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE LOW LEVELS RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST, THEN UP TO TAU48, SOUTHWARDS AS THE TROUGH ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GO ON INTENSIFY WITH THE SETTING UP TO TAU24 OF A NEW UPPER LEVELS OUTFLOW DUE TO THE POLAR WESTERLY JET.