Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/5/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 2.A POSITION 2009/01/09 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 68.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/09 12 UTC: 15.5S/67.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/01/10 00 UTC: 16.4S/66.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/01/10 12 UTC: 17.4S/67.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/11 00 UTC: 18.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/01/11 12 UTC: 20.5S/68.0E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/01/12 00 UTC: 23.5S/68.5E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0-. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS BROAD CIRCULATION STILL REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING AND BARELY CONSOLIDATES CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTRE -WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE WITH THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENT IS HOWEVER RATHER FAVOURABLE, WITH A HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND A WELL ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW, THANKS TO THE MONSOON FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD IMPROVE AT RANGE 24 TO 36: THE POLEWARD INFLOW SHOULD TEMPORARILY REBUILD THANKS TO BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND RANGE 60H, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME UNFAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TILL RANGE 12 TO 24H ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST, AND THEN SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES, AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST.