Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 2.A POSITION 2009/01/09 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3S / 68.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/09 18 UTC: 16.7S/68.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/01/10 06 UTC: 17.7S/68.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/10 18 UTC: 18.9S/68.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/11 06 UTC: 21.1S/69.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/01/11 18 UTC: 23.6S/69.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/01/12 06 UTC: 26.7S/69.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS BROAD CIRCULATION STILL REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING AND BARELY CONSOLIDATES CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTRE -WHICH HAS BEEN RELOCALISED ACCORDING TO FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A WINDSAT PASS AT 00:53Z (FIX NEAR 16S/69.1E). SYSTEM HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NIGHT ALONG AN ESTIMATED 230°/6KT. CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS CLOSE TO A MOSOON DEPRESSION ALTHOUGHT NO SCATT DATA CONFIRM THE WINDFIELD. OVER THE LAST 3/4 HOURS CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO REBUILT WEST OF THE ESTIMATED LLCC. CIMSS DATA SHOW THAT STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR STILL REMAIN NORTH OF 15S. ENVIRONMENT IS HOWEVER RATHER FAVOURABLE, WITH A HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND A WELL ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW, THANKS TO THE MONSOON FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD IMPROVE TOMORROW: THE POLEWARD INFLOW SHOULD TEMPORARILY REBUILD THANKS TO BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE END OF THE FORCAST, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME UNFAVOURABLE WITH COOLER SST AND STRONGER WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TILL RANGE 12H ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST, AND THEN SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES, AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST.