Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/5/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/11 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8S / 69.1E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 330 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 035 SE: 035 SO: 035 NO: 035 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/11 18 UTC: 24.7S/70.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/01/12 06 UTC: 27.2S/71.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/12 18 UTC: 29.9S/72.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/13 06 UTC: 31.9S/73.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/13 18 UTC: 34.0S/76.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/14 06 UTC: 36.2S/80.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 THE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. NO MAJOR CHANGE HAS COME FROM THE 00Z RUN. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED. PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS BUT CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK. IT IS SLIGHTLY EASTWARDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. SYSTEM IS STILL TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS START TO DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME WORSE AS THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE COMING NIGHT.