Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/5/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/12 AT 0000 UTC : 27.0S / 70.2E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 20 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 400 SO: 180 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/12 12 UTC: 30.1S/71.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/01/13 00 UTC: 33.1S/73.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/13 12 UTC: 36.0S/77.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/14 00 UTC: 39.1S/82.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/14 12 UTC: 42.4S/88.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/15 00 UTC: 46.1S/95.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0, CI=3.5- DONGO HAS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE WITH A BIGGER WIND EXTENSION IN THE EAST DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST, DONGO IS TRACKING OVER A LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT INCREASES IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROCHING IN THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. DONGO SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS STEERING INFLUENCE DURING THE NEXT DAYS. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.