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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/5/20082009
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-DONGO)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/12 AT 0600 UTC :
28.8S / 70.4E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 350 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 500 SE: 550 SO: 350 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/12 18 UTC: 32.3S/72.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2009/01/13 06 UTC: 34.9S/75.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/01/13 18 UTC: 37.3S/79.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/14 06 UTC: 40.0S/83.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/14 18 UTC: 43.8S/90.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/15 06 UTC: 47.8S/97.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DONGO SHOWS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE (QUIKSCAT 0100Z) WITH A CENTER COMPLETLY EXPOSED, ASYMMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE WITH A BIGGER WIND EXTENSION IN THE EAST DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. DONGO IS TRACKING OVER A LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT INCREASES IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROCHING IN THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. DONGO SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS STEERING INFLUENCE DURING THE NEXT DAYS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED.