Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/5/20082009 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-DONGO) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/12 AT 1200 UTC : 29.0S / 70.3E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 350 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 450 SE: 500 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/13 00 UTC: 31.2S/71.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/01/13 12 UTC: 32.9S/74.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/14 00 UTC: 36.2S/78.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/14 12 UTC: 40.5S/86.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/15 00 UTC: 45.1S/95.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DONGO SHOWS AN EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE (ASCAT 0553Z) WITH A CENTER COMPLETLY EXPOSED, DISSYMMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE WITH A BIGGER WIND EXTENSION IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. DONGO IS TEMPORARILY SLOWING DOWN DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE UP TO 24 HOURS SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. DONGO SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS STEERING INFLUENCE DURING THE NEXT DAYS. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED.