Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/5/20082009 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-DONGO) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/13 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.0S / 72.2E (THIRTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 200 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 600 SE: 700 SO: 200 NO: 180 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/13 12 UTC: 33.7S/74.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/01/14 00 UTC: 37.3S/79.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/14 12 UTC: 41.0S/86.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/15 00 UTC: 45.0S/95.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DONGO SHOWS AN EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE. THE CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED, WIND STRUCTURE IS ASSYMETRIC (QUIKSCAT 1233Z) WITH A LARGER EXTENSION IN THE SOUTH-EAST DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND THE SPEED MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE LAST HOURS, AND SHOULD KEEP ON ACCELERATING FOR THE COMING RANGES. DONGO IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES, ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. DURING THE NEXT DAYS, DONGO SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING QUICKLY TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED MOTION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO THE GMDSS BULLETINS FQIO20 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.