Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/6/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 52.6E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/18 12 UTC: 16.2S/51.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/01/19 00 UTC: 17.6S/50.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/19 12 UTC: 19.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 21.1S/49.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 23.7S/49.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 26.4S/50.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM, HAS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME BETTER ORGANISED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DUILDING IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM IS FED BY A GOOD TRADEWINDS INFLOW, BUT MONSOON FLOW APPEARS WEAKER AND LESS EFFICIENT (POSSIBLY DISTURB BY THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR). WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, SPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART WITH SOME NICE CIRRUS EXPENSION (MORE LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERN PART). AS THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM SST IN THE RANGE OF 29°C, CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK : THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEEPENING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.