Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/6/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2S / 51.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/18 18 UTC: 17.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/01/19 06 UTC: 18.8S/49.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/19 18 UTC: 20.6S/49.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 22.6S/48.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 24.5S/49.4E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 27.1S/50.7E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 SYSTEM IS FEED BY A GOOD TRADEWINDS INFLOW, BUT MONSOON FLOW APPEARS WEAKER AND LESS EFFICIENT (POSSIBLY DISTURBED BY THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR). WINDSHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, SPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART WITH SOME NICE CIRRUS EXPENSION (MORE LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERN PART). AS THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM SST IN THE RANGE OF 29°C, CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK : THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEEPENING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.