Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/6/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 1200 UTC : 16.9S / 50.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/19 00 UTC: 17.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/01/19 12 UTC: 19.7S/49.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 21.7S/48.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 24.5S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 27.5S/49.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 30.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED SOUTH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A PERSISTENT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DOESN'T ALLOW THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH. OVER THIS NEW TRACK , VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKENING BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS IN THE SAME TIME EXPECTED TO BE POOR ON THE BOTH SIDES (LOW PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH AND MONSOON FLOW CUTTED BY MADAGASCAR). INTENSIFICATION SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED AND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IF IT DRIFTS CLOSE ALONG THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE WHERE IT HOWEVER GENERATE A LOT OF PRECIPITATION. WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, THIS THUNDERY AND RAINY ACTIVITY COULD ALSO CONCERN LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS ISLANDS.