Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/6/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0S / 50.5E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/19 06 UTC: 18.8S/49.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/01/19 18 UTC: 20.8S/48.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 23.3S/49.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 26.1S/49.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 28.5S/49.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 31.7S/52.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY. LLCC IS STILL LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS LAST ONE HAS NOT APPEARED VERY CONSOLIDATED DURING THE DAY WITH SOME CYCLE. HOWEVER THE LAST ONE THAT HAVE STARTED AROUND 14Z SEEMS TO BE MORE PERSISTANT. IN FACT, IT SEEMS THAT WE ARE CLOSE TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STATUS. A DECREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PERSISTS. SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE BEGIN ITS TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST (CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED 230°/6KT). ON THIS TRACK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKENING BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS IN THE SAME TIME EXPECTED TO BE POOR ON THE BOTH SIDES (LOW PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH AND MONSOON FLOW CUTTED BY MADAGASCAR). INTENSIFICATION SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED AND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AS IT DRIFTS CLOSE ALONG THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE WHERE IT HOWEVER GENERATE A LOT OF PRECIPITATION. WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, THIS THUNDERY AND RAINY ACTIVITY COULD ALSO CONCERN LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS ISLANDS.