Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/6/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 49.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/19 12 UTC: 19.5S/48.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 21.7S/48.8E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 24.4S/49.2E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 26.6S/50.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 28.6S/52.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 31.9S/57.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5+ SCATTEROMETRIC DATA (ASCAT PASS OF 17:50Z SHOW SOME NO CONTAMINATED 35 KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE) AND SATELLITE DATA (CURVED BAND THAT MEASURES 5.5/10 ON EIR IMAGERY) ALLOW A DT AT 2.5+. CONSEQUENTLY, SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED ERIC BY THE MADAGASCAR WEATHER SERVICES. HOWEVER CONVECTION IS WARMER SINCE 20:30Z PROBABLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF LANDMASS. SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK (CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED 230°/6KT) AND SHOULD MADE LANDFALL OR PASS VERY NEAR TO THE EAST OF THE FENERIVE/TAMATAVE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO WITH A SOUTHWARDS TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. ON THIS TRACK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT SYSTEM SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. WINDS STRUCTURE IS DISSYMETRIC (GREATER WINDS EXTENSION IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE),