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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/6/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 0600 UTC :
17.9S / 49.5E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/19 18 UTC: 20.3S/48.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 22.5S/49.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 25.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 27.1S/50.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 29.8S/54.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 33.5S/59.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+
SYSTEM WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE. WIND/PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP NOT RESPECTED.
SCATTEROMETRIC DATA (QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0322Z SHOW SOME NO CONTAMINATED 35 KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE) AND SATELLITE IMAGERY (CDO) ALLOW A DT AT 2.5+. HOWEVER CONVECTION IS WARMER SINCE 2030Z PROBABLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF LANDMASS.

SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AND SHOULD SKIRT THE EASTERN MALAGASY COAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT SYSTEM SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.

WINDS STRUCTURE IS DISSYMETRIC (GREATER WINDS EXTENSION IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE).

NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS.