Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/6/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 1200 UTC : 19.1S / 49.3E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 20.8S/49.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 23.7S/49.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 26.5S/49.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 29.6S/50.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 32.0S/55.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 34.3S/62.4E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5, AND CI=2.5+ ERIC HAS CROSSED TAMATAVE WHERE MEASURED PRESSURE WAS THEN AT 993 HPA. CENTRE IS FULLY EXPOSED SOUTH OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION AND IS BACK AT SEA. SYSTEM WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE. WIND/PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP NOT RESPECTED. WINDS STRUCTURE IS ASYMMETRIC (GREATER WINDS EXTENSION IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE). SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTRED IN TH EAST. BEYOND RANGE 36H, IT SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EVACUATE WITH THE TRANSITING TROUGH. THE SYSTEM CAN BENEFIT FROM AN INTENSIFICATION WINDOW UP TO RANGE 24 HOURS, AS THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD TEMPORARILY DECREASED AND AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD IMPROVE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS.