Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/6/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 49.3E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 350 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 23.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 26.6S/49.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 29.4S/50.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 32.1S/53.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 33.2S/56.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 34.4S/59.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5+ ENVISAT SWATH AT 19/1852Z CONFIRMS THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY NEAR 35KT LOCALLY 40KT. ERIC HAS MOVED AWAY FROM MALAGASY COASTLINE AND CAN BENEFIT FROM AN INTENSIFICATION WINDOW UP TO RANGE 24 HOURS, AS THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD TEMPORARILY DECREASED AND AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD IMPROVE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS.