Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/6/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 0600 UTC : 22.8S / 49.1E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 450 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 24.5S/48.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 27.2S/49.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 30.5S/51.6E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 32.3S/54.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 33.6S/57.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 35.1S/60.0E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T= 2.5-; CI=2.5+ THE RESIDUAL VORTEX OF ERIC IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT VENTILATION MOSTLY DUE TO THE UPPER OUTFLOW COMING FROM CYCLONE FANELE DISTANT LESS THAN 750 KM TO THE WEST. ERIC GOES ON MOVING ROUND THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT EASTWARD AND WILL WITHDRAW FROM THE TROPICAL DOMAIN BEYOND 24H RANGE WHILE ACCELERATING AND RECURVING GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY HOWEVER ALLOW IT TO RE-DEEPEN DESPITE ITS SMALL CIRCULATION AND ITS PRIOR PARTIAL FILLING UP.