Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/6/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0S / 49.3E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 70 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 100 NO: 250 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 28.1S/49.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 31.0S/52.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 33.2S/56.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 35.0S/62.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T= 2.5; CI=2.5+ CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY REBUILT OVER THE RESIDUAL VORTEX OF ERIC. THE CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE TRANSITING COLD FRONT. ERIC GOES ON MOVING ROUND THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT EASTWARD AND WILL WITHDRAW FROM THE TROPICAL DOMAIN BEYOND 24H RANGE WHILE ACCELERATING AND RECURVING GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY HOWEVER ALLOW IT TO RE-DEEPEN DESPITE ITS SMALL CIRCULATION AND ITS PRIOR PARTIAL FILLING UP.