Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/6/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ERIC) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/21 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5S / 49.0E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 28.1S/50.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 30.7S/54.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 32.5S/58.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 34.0S/62.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE SYSTEM STARTS TO UNDERGO THE NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT DUR TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING. HOWEVER, ASSOCIATED WINDS REMAIN STRONG IN THE EASTERN SECTOR (ASCAT 1847Z). ERIC GOES ON MOVING ROUND THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT EASTWARD AND WILL WITHDRAW FROM THE TROPICAL DOMAIN BEYOND 12H RANGE WHILE ACCELERATING AND RECURVING GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY HOWEVER ALLOW IT TO RE-DEEPEN DESPITE ITS SMALL CIRCULATION AND ITS PRIOR PARTIAL FILLING UP.