Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/6/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ERIC) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4S / 50.5E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 120 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 450 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 415 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 30.8S/53.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 33.1S/58.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 34.6S/62.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 36.0S/66.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO UNDERGO THE NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM FLOWING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ERIC WHICH IS ABOUT TO INITIATE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WINDS REMAIN STRONG IN THE EASTERN SECTOR DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND DUE TO THE CORRELATED FAST MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. ERIC GOES ON MOVING ROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL INDEED ACCELERATE NOTICEABLY IN THE NEXT 24H WHILE RECURVING SOUTHEASTWARD.