Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/6/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ERIC) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/21 AT 1800 UTC : 30.7S / 54.8E (THIRTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 25 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 120 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 280 SO: 120 NO: 070 50 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 33.7S/59.6E, MAX WIND=035KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 35.3S/64.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 37.2S/68.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/23 18 UTC: 38.4S/73.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/24 06 UTC: 40.3S/80.3E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/24 18 UTC: 44.0S/87.0E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING THE NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM FLOWING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ERIC WHICH IS BIGINING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WINDS REMAIN STRONG IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SECTOR DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND DUE TO THE CORRELATED FAST MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, ERIC HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND TRACKS SOUHTEASTWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO THE GMDSS BULLETINS FQIO20 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.