Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/7/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 42.5E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/18 18 UTC: 20.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/01/19 06 UTC: 20.6S/41.6E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/19 18 UTC: 19.7S/41.4E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 18.2S/42.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 18.7S/43.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 19.4S/44.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=1.5 SINCE 0000Z, SYSTEM CONFIGURATION HAS PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVE , OBVIOUS SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. LLCC IS LOCATED THANKS TO 0248Z SSMIS ANS 0334Z SSMI. TODAY , PERIPHERAL BANDS SHOULD CONCERN THE WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE FROM BESALAMPY TO TULEAR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR A REGULAR INTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONNARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE MALAGASY COASTLINES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM NR6.