Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/7/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6S / 41.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 020 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/19 06 UTC: 21.6S/40.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/01/19 18 UTC: 20.5S/41.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 20.0S/41.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 19.8S/42.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 19.7S/44.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 20.0S/46.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5 OVERALL PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGHTENING POLEWARD ONE RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGHTEN REGULARELY AND TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND EASTWARDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM NR6. IT COULD MAKE LANDFALL BEYOND TAU 48H TO 60H NEAR MORONDAVE AT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. A MORE EARLY LANDFALL WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.