Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/7/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4S / 41.3E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/19 12 UTC: 21.1S/41.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 20.9S/41.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 20.1S/42.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 20.5S/43.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 21.2S/44.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 72H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 22.3S/45.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=2.5 SYSTEM IS BENEATH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGHTENING POLEWARD ONE RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGHTEN REGULARELY AND AS THE LLCC HAS A GOOD PRESENTATION ON THE WINDSAT PASS AT 15:48Z, IT DOES NOT SEEM UNLIKELY THAT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION SPELL COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 48/60 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL ... MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EATERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS. INTEREST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.