Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/7/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 0600 UTC : 21.5S / 40.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/19 18 UTC: 21.1S/40.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 20.1S/41.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 19.8S/42.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 20.2S/42.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 21.4S/43.9E OVERLAND. 72H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 22.1S/44.9E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THIS SYSTEM IS NAMED FANELE BY THE MALAGASY WEATHER SERVICE. FANELE IS BENEATH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. SO SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN REGULARLY. HOWEVER A DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE 48 HOURS COULD LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION. MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS. INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.