Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/7/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 1200 UTC : 21.8S / 41.0E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 20.5S/41.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 19.9S/42.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 20.4S/43.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 21.8S/45.2E OVERLAND. 60H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.6S/47.6E OVERLAND. 72H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 24.9S/49.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5+ THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND CAN SUPPORT 4.0-, BUT FINAL T NUMBER IS RESTRICTED TO 3.5+ DUE TO DVORAK RULES CONSTRAINTS. THE SYSTEM SHOWS A VERY SMALL INNER CORE, BUT A HINT OF AN EYE IS EXHIBITED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSU 0641Z) FANELE IS BENEATH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. SO FANELE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN REGULARLY. HOWEVER A DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE 36 HOURS COULD LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION. MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS. INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.