Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/7/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7S / 41.3E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 20.1S/41.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 20.1S/43.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 21.1S/44.5E OVERLAND. 48H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 22.7S/46.3E OVERLAND. 60H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 24.2S/48.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 25.5S/50.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0+ MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMI/1621Z - SSMIS/1508Z - AMSU/1406Z) SHOWS CLEARLY A VERY SMALL INNER CORE WITH A VERY SMALL EYE TOO. FANELE IS BENEATH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. SO FANELE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN REGULARLY. HOWEVER A DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE 36 HOURS COULD LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION. MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS. INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.