Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/7/20082009 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 41.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 20.4S/42.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 20.8S/43.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 22.5S/45.2E OVERLAND. 48H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.4S/47.2E OVERLAND. 60H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 24.2S/48.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 25.1S/50.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0+ FANELE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDERGOING VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS. INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD VERY CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.