Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/7/20082009 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 0600 UTC : 20.5S / 42.3E (TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 20.1S/43.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 21.1S/44.5E OVERLAND. 36H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 22.3S/45.8E OVERLAND. 48H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 23.6S/48.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 24.5S/49.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 25.6S/50.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5+ FANELE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDERGOING VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED. HOWEVER A LANDFALL IS EXPECTED UP TO TAU 18 SOUTH TO THE MORONDAVE/MOROMBE AREA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MALAGASY ISLAND AND EXIT OVER SEAS UP TO TAU 48H, WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.