Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/7/20082009 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 1200 UTC : 20.2S / 42.6E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 927 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 120 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 20.6S/43.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 22.2S/44.9E OVERLAND. 36H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.4S/47.0E OVERLAND. 48H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 25.1S/49.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 26.9S/51.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING SUBTROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 28.8S/53.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: FANELE HAS GONE ON ITS INTENSIFYCATION UNDERGOING VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRETED, AND EYE IS WARMER MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN SPEED. HOWEVER A LANDFALL IS EXPECTED UP TO TAU 18 SOUTH TO THE MORONDAVE/MOROMBE AREA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MALAGASY ISLAND AND EXIT OVER SEAS UP TO TAU 36H, WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.