Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/7/20082009 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 1800 UTC : 20.4S / 43.1E (TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 927 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 21.6S/44.2E OVERLAND. 24H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 23.1S/46.5E OVERLAND. 36H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 24.5S/48.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 25.9S/50.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 28.3S/51.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/23 18 UTC: 30.5S/53.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5, CI=6.0 ON THE LAST IR IMAGERY, EYE IS LESS WELL DEFINED AND IS COOLER. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY TILL THE LANDFALL, WHICH IS FORECAST BETWEEN BELO AND MOROMBE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS. FANALE HAS INDEED STARTED TO TRACK EASTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS, AND GETS CLOSER TO THE WESTERN MALAGASY COAST. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SPEED. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MADAGASCAR AND TO BE BACK AT SEA WITHI THE NEST 24 TO 36 HOURS.