Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/7/20082009 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (EX-FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 44.3E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 200 SO: 300 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 22.7S/46.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 23.6S/48.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 24.4S/50.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 25.8S/51.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/01/23 18 UTC: 27.6S/52.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/24 06 UTC: 28.9S/53.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: FANELE HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE WESTERN MALAGASY COAST AROUND 02:15Z. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS OCCURED YESTERDAY EVENING AND HAS CAUSED SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER IT HAS GIVEN A GREATER EXTENSION TO THE MAX WINDS ... THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CROSS MADAGASCAR AND TO BE BACK AT SEA WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. IT SEEMS THAT FANELE HAS A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT MAKES ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SPEED. FORECAST TRACK IS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILT SOUTHWARDS. SO, IT SEEMS THAT FANELE SHOULD NOT TAKE THE SAME TROUGH THAT ERIC ..