Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/7/20082009 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (EX-FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/21 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5S / 45.3E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 090 SO: 160 NO: 270 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.2S/47.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 24.2S/49.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 25.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 26.9S/52.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/01/24 00 UTC: 28.1S/52.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2009/01/24 12 UTC: 29.2S/53.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER LAND AND THE RESIDUAL EYE FEAURES THAT WAS SEEN UNTIL 06:30 TU HAS COLLAPSED GIVEN A NOT EASY TO FIND LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE BACK AT SEA TOMORROW MORNING. IT SEEMS THAT FANELE HAS A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITH A BETTER TRADEWIND INFLOW AS SOME RIDGE IS TEMPORARELY REBUILT SOUTWARDS AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MOREOVER A NORTHWESTERN SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED AHEAD OF SHORT MID-LAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. IT IS NOT UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM REGAIN MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STATUS. LIMITANT FACTOR ARE COOLER SST (NO HEAT CONTAIN SOUTH OF 27S), SOME WESTERLY MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR THAT COULD BE GENERATE BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONNED MID-LAT TROUGH, AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR FORECASTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST TRACK IS GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILT SOUTHWARDS. SO, FANELE SHOULD NOT TAKE THE SAME TROUGH THAT ERIC AND THE CURRENT FORCAST IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD NOT OCCURED YET.