Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/7/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 (EX-FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/22 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8S / 48.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 25.1S/49.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 26.7S/51.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 29.5S/53.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2009/01/24 00 UTC: 30.9S/54.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/01/24 12 UTC: 32.0S/57.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/25 00 UTC: 32.8S/58.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS BACK AT SEA IN THE SOUTH EAST TO MALAGASY. IT SEEMS THAT FANELE HAS A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITH A BETTER TRADEWIND INFLOW AS SOME RIDGE IS TEMPORARELY REBUILT SOUTWARDS AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MOREOVER A NORTHWESTERN SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED AHEAD OF SHORT MID-LAT TROUGH THAT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. IT IS NOT UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM REGAIN TEMPORARILY MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STATUS. LIMITANT FACTOR ARE COOLER SST (NO HEAT CONTAIN SOUTH OF 27S), SOME WESTERLY MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR THAT COULD BE GENERATE BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONNED MID-LAT TROUGH, AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR FORECASTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK.