Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/7/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/22 AT 0600 UTC : 24.4S / 49.1E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 300 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 25.9S/50.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 27.5S/51.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/23 18 UTC: 29.5S/53.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/24 06 UTC: 30.8S/56.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/24 18 UTC: 31.5S/57.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/25 06 UTC: 32.6S/58.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 THE SYSTEM IS BACK OVER SEA IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF MALAGASY. IT SEEMS THAT FANELE HAS A SMALL WINDOW (12 TO 18H) FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITH A BETTER TRADEWIND INFLOW AS SOME RIDGE IS TEMPORARELY REBUILDING SOUTHWARD. IT STAYS HOWEVER IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS JET COULD MAKE SOME GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT COULD GENERATE A LITTLE SHEAR CONSTRAINT IN THE SAME TIME WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITANT. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. FOR YOUR INFORMATION : EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000HPA 45/50KT EX-ERIC IS CENTERED AT 22/0600UTC NEAR 34.5S/62.4E MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT 35KT.