Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/7/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2S / 50.6E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 27.0S/51.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 29.3S/52.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/24 00 UTC: 30.9S/54.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/24 12 UTC: 32.1S/56.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/25 00 UTC: 32.9S/58.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/25 12 UTC: 34.1S/60.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING AGAIN OVER SEA SINCE YESTERDAY AT 21 UTC WHEN IT LEFT MALAGASY AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, AT ABOUT 80KM SOUTH OF FARAFANGA (23.5S/43.6E). THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A GOOD TRADEWIND INFLOW BUT STAYS HOWEVER IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS JET COULD MAKE SOME GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT COULD GENERATE A LITTLE SHEAR CONSTRAINT IN THE SAME TIME WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITANT. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. FOR YOUR INFORMATION : EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000HPA 45/50KT EX-ERIC IS CENTERED AT 22/1200UTC NEAR 38.0S/69.1E MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT 50KT.