Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/7/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/22 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4S / 51.6E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 260 SE: 140 SO: 360 NO: 140 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 28.8S/52.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/01/23 18 UTC: 31.0S/54.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/24 06 UTC: 32.5S/55.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/24 18 UTC: 33.4S/57.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/25 06 UTC: 34.6S/59.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/25 18 UTC: 36.3S/61.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER, FANELE HAS A WELL DEFINED LLCC BUT QUITE WIDE WHERE NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO BUILT TODAY DUE TO A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. QUICKSCAT PASS AT 14:53Z SHOW A WIDE CENTRAL AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS (DIAMETER ABOUT 40 NM) SURROUNDED BY A CROWN OF STRONG WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY AS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LEAVING THE HEAT CONTENT WATERS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK.