Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/7/20082009 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.8S / 51.8E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 420 SO: 420 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 30.1S/53.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/01/24 00 UTC: 31.8S/54.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/24 12 UTC: 33.0S/57.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/25 00 UTC: 33.6S/58.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/25 12 UTC: 34.5S/60.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/26 00 UTC: 36.9S/61.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CLASSICAL IMAGERY (IR, WATER VAPOR) SUGGEST THAT FANELE IS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE HAS VANISHED DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM STILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS SHOWN BY THE ASCAT PASS AROUND 18Z. A WIDE CENTRAL AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS (DIAMETER ABOUT 40 TO 50 NM) SURROUNDED BY A CROWN OF STRONG WINDS CAN STILL BE DEPICTED. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. WINDS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY ABATE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A MIDLAT TROUGH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.