Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/7/20082009 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/23 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3S / 52.0E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 60 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 230 SE: 400 SO: 230 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/23 18 UTC: 30.9S/53.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/01/24 06 UTC: 32.4S/55.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/24 18 UTC: 33.4S/57.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/25 06 UTC: 34.0S/59.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/25 18 UTC: 35.3S/60.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/26 06 UTC: 38.2S/63.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM STILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS SHOWN BY THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0315Z. A WIDE CENTRAL AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS (DIAMETER ABOUT 50 TO 60 NM) SURROUNDED BY A CROWN OF STRONG WINDS EXTENDING IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR IS DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, AND THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A MID LAT TROUGH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.