Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/7/20082009 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-FANELE) 2.A POSITION 2009/01/23 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.8S / 53.0E (THIRTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/01/24 00 UTC: 32.6S/55.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/01/24 12 UTC: 34.0S/57.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/01/25 00 UTC: 34.8S/59.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/01/25 12 UTC: 35.8S/61.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/01/26 00 UTC: 37.1S/62.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/01/26 12 UTC: 40.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM HAS CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED AND THE LLCC IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED, YET STILL RATHER WELL DEFINED. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM STILL PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AS SHOWN BY THE ASCAT DATA AT 0520Z. THE SYSTEM SHOWS A WIND STRUCTURE WITH A BROAD CENTRAL AREA OF WEAKER WINDS (DIAMETER ABOUT 60 TO 80 NM) SURROUNDED BY A RING OF STRONGER WINDS WHICH EXTENDS FURTHER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD FORECAST TRACK AND THE SLOWDOWN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A MID LATITUDES TROUGH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, AS THE SYSTEM FILLS UP. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS NOW MONITORED WITH THE GMDSS BULLETINS FQIO20.