Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/8/20082009 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 2.A POSITION 2009/02/01 AT 1200 UTC : 15.1S / 70.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1007 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/02 00 UTC: 15.4S/69.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/02/02 12 UTC: 15.4S/68.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2009/02/03 00 UTC: 15.6S/67.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2009/02/03 12 UTC: 15.9S/66.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/04 00 UTC: 16.4S/65.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/04 12 UTC: 16.9S/63.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENVIRONNENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GLOBALLY NEUTRAL. LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS ALWAYS UNDERGOING A WEAK TO MORERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR, AND THE LOW IS ONLY FED BY MOONSON INFLOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLES BEYOND TAU 24H, DUE TO IMPROVING FEEDING BY A BETTER MOONSON FLOW AND THE BUILD OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN. ALL AVAILABLE NPW TRACK IT WESTWARDS OR WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING IT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTHE SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE TWO MAIN SENARII, DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION, AND THE EXPENSION OF THE REIDGE WESTWARDS IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEMN AND NORTHWARDS IN THE EAST OF THE SYSYTEM. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF CEP, UKMO AND CONW MODELS, WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION AND A RIDGE STRONGER IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS STAGE OF INTENSITY, SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OG REGULAR WARNINGS.