Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/8/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2009/02/02 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 68.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/02 18 UTC: 15.8S/67.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/02/03 06 UTC: 16.3S/66.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/02/03 18 UTC: 16.8S/64.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/04 06 UTC: 17.4S/62.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/04 18 UTC: 17.8S/60.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/05 06 UTC: 18.1S/58.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- SYSTEM IS SHEARED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. ENVIRONNENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GLOBALLY NEUTRAL. LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS ALWAYS UNDERGOING A WEAK TO MORERATE VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL IS ONLY FED BY MOONSON INFLOW AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW ALONG THE DAY,CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DUE TO IMPROVING FEEDING BY A BETTER MONSOON FLOW AND THE BUILD OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY BE MORE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A DECREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. 12Z AND EARLIER 00Z NWP MODELS TRACK THE WESTWARDS OR WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE 00Z RUN OF YESTERDAY IS THE FASTER MOTION. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE PRESENT FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF CEP, UKMO AND A CONSENSUS OF US MODELS. INTENSIFICATION RATE IS SLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.