Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/8/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2009/02/02 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 67.2E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/03 00 UTC: 16.8S/65.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/02/03 12 UTC: 17.7S/64.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/02/04 00 UTC: 18.3S/62.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/04 12 UTC: 18.5S/60.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/05 00 UTC: 18.7S/58.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/05 12 UTC: 18.7S/56.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 SYSTEM IS SHEARED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION (CF TRMM AT 09:59Z). ENVIRONNENTAL CONDITIONS WERE STATIONNARY DURING THE LAST HOURS WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL ONLY FED BY THE MONSOON FLOW. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS WEST-SOUTH-WEST IN RELATION WITH A WEAKENESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IT SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD BEYOND WITH THE INCREASING OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS BETTER POLEWARD AFTER TOMORROW EVENING THANKS TO THE INCREASING GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE BUT ONLY ONE OUTFLOW WILL STETTLE IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTENSIFICATION RATE IS SLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.