Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/8/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 2.A POSITION 2009/02/03 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5S / 65.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: SO: NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/03 12 UTC: 17.1S/64.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/02/04 00 UTC: 17.5S/62.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/04 12 UTC: 17.7S/59.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/05 00 UTC: 17.8S/57.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/05 12 UTC: 17.9S/55.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/06 00 UTC: 18.0S/54.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- SYSTEM IS SHEARED WITH AN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. ENVIRONNENTAL CONDITIONS WERE STATIONNARY DURING THE LAST HOURS WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL ONLY FED MAINLY BY THE MONSOON FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS WEST-SOUTH-WEST IN RELATION WITH A WEAKENESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UP TO TAU 24H IT SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD BEYOND WITH THE INCREASING OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS BETTER POLEWARD AFTER TOMORROW EVENING THANKS TO THE INCREASING GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE BUT ONLY ONE OUTFLOW WILL STETTLE IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTENSIFICATION RATE IS SLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.