Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/8/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (GAEL) 2.A POSITION 2009/02/03 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2S / 64.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 850 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/02/03 18 UTC: 18.0S/63.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/02/04 06 UTC: 18.5S/61.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/02/04 18 UTC: 18.4S/58.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/02/05 06 UTC: 18.2S/56.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/02/05 18 UTC: 18.3S/54.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/02/06 06 UTC: 18.6S/53.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- AND CI=2.5+ SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED AND SHOWS A BROAD VORTEX, TOTALLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS RATHER GOOD ON THE BOTH EDGES BUT INTENSIFICATION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAK BEYOND TAU 36 BUT WITH ONLY ONE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL, A SECOND ONE COULD APPEAR POLEWARD BEYOND TAU 72. INTEREST IN THE MASCAREGNAS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.